Week 15 NFL Picks: Dome Happy Saints Travel To Minnesota Vikings

Saturday, December 17, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Drew Brees - Week 15 NFL Picks: Dome Happy Saints Travel To Minnesota Vikings

Analysis:
One of the NFL's most splendid collection of talents and one of its sorriest crew are set to meet Sunday in Minneapolis, as the New Orleans Saints take their five-game winning streak and division title hopes on the road to face the Minnesota Vikings, who are riding a five-game losing streak.

New Orleans improved to 10-3 by squeezing out a 22-17 victory over the Titans at LP Field. It wasn't pretty though, as the Saints committed plenty of penalties and mistakes before reaching the double-digit win mark for the third year in a row.

The Saints have been on a roll with five straight wins, however, and currently hold a 1 1/2 -game lead on Atlanta for first place in the NFC South after the Falcons defeated Jacksonville on Thursday.

QB superstar Drew Brees is one of just four quarterbacks to have already passed for 4,000 yards, joining Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning, and all four right- armed gunslingers have their respective teams currently aiming for the Vince Lombardi trophy -- something Brees would like to grip for a second time in his career.

Brees and the Saints target their first six-game winning streak since Oct. 31- Dec. 12 of last season and look to improve to 7-3 against the NFC with a win over the Vikings. Brees leads the NFL with 4,368 passing yards and is on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season passing record of 5,084 yards set during the 1984 campaign. Brady, Rodgers and Manning are also in the running for one of the league's most impressive records.

Perhaps someday Vikings rookie quarterback Christian Ponder will put up numbers similar to Marino and the rest of those quarterbacks. Right now he's not even close, however, and the first-round draft pick is also questionable for Sunday's game with a hip injury suffered a few weeks ago. However, it wasn't his hip that got Ponder benched in last week's 34-28 loss at Detroit, as his removal was based on performance.

Ponder, who took over for an ineffective Donovan McNabb back in October, threw three interceptions against Detroit and his fumble on Minnesota's first offensive snap was recovered in the end zone for a 7-0 Lions lead. He had two touchdown passes and 115 yards on the day, but by the third quarter head coach Leslie Frazier had seen enough and called on backup Joe Webb. The second-year pro completed 12 of his 23 passes for 84 yards and a touchdown.

There's no quarterback controversy in the Twin Cities, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Webb get the start Sunday if Ponder's hip pointer is still an issue.

Another area of concern for Minnesota has been the health of prized running back Adrian Peterson. He is dealing with a high ankle sprain and has missed the last three weeks because of the problem, but the main focus for the Vikings offensively appears on track to play against the Saints.

Peterson has scored a touchdown in each of his last six games (8 total), and coach Leslie Frazier said this week it would be a boost to get him back. The head coach said there's still more time before Sunday's game to evaluate the running back's status, but he has been practicing in a limited capacity this week.

Webb led the Vikings with 109 yards rushing in the loss to the Lions, most of which came when he ripped off a 65-yard touchdown run. Toby Gerhart has taken most of the reps in the backfield, and that will not change until Peterson returns.

Minnesota is only 2-11 on the season, the team's worst record since the early days of the organization, and is mired in a five-game losing streak. The Vikings had last lost five in a row in 1997 and haven't sustained six consecutive defeats since losing the last six contests of the 1984 season (Nov. 11-Dec. 16). Les Steckel was head coach at the time, and the club finished 3-13.

Minnesota has an 18-8 lead in its overall regular-season series with New Orleans and had won four consecutive non-playoff meetings against the Saints prior to a 14-9 loss at the Superdome in a Thursday night clash that kicked off the NFL's 2010 campaign.

The Saints have left with a defeat in five straight visits to the Metrodome as well, which includes a setback there in the 2000 NFC Playoffs, and were dealt a 33-16 loss to the Vikings in their last trip to Minneapolis back in 2005. New Orleans, which also lost at home to Minnesota by a 30-27 score in 2008, is 2-11 all-time as the visitor in this set and last prevailed at the Metrodome via a 17-14 decision on Nov. 28, 1993.

Last season's opener between these teams was a rematch of the 2009 NFC Championship Game held in New Orleans, in which the Saints outlasted Minnesota in a 30-27 overtime thriller en route to their first and only Super Bowl championship. The Vikings won their two other postseason bouts with New Orleans, a 44-10 rout at the Superdome in a 1987 NFC First-Round clash and a 34-16 home victory in the 2000 Divisional round.

Sean Payton owns a 2-1 record against Minnesota during his tenure with New Orleans, while Frazier has never faced either the Saints or Payton in his present position.

Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 18, 2011. Mall of America Field at H.H.H. Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minnesota

Last Week's results:
- New Orleans Saints (-3.5) beats host Tennessee Titans 22-17.
- Minnesota Vikings (+10) loses to host Detroit Lions 34-28.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite New Orleans Saints (10-3) wins and covers
- Underdog Minnesota Vikings (2-11) loses but covers.

NFL Football Odds: Saints -8, O/U 53

Next up:
- New Orleans home to Atlanta Falcons, Monday, December 26
- Minnesota at Washington redskins, Saturday, December 24

Brees remains on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season passing record of 5,084 yards set in 1984. Brees has thrown for 4,368 yards – the most in NFL history through 13 games – and has topped 300 yards 10 times this season. The Saints have been far from dominant at times during their winning streak, though, including last week's 22-17 win at Tennessee in which they trailed 10-9 entering the fourth quarter and had to stop the Titans twice from the 5-yard line in the final seconds to preserve the win.

There hasn't been much good news for Minnesota this season, but the Vikings should get star RB Adrian Peterson back Sunday. Peterson (ankle) has missed the past three games but still ranks third in the league with 11 rushing touchdowns and needs only 128 rushing yards to reach 1,000 for the fifth consecutive season. Ponder has passed for 1,637 yards with 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Ponder split time last week with Joe Webb, who rushed for 109 yards, including a 65-yard touchdown, the longest by a quarterback in team history.

The Saints are 6-0 at home and although this game will be played in Minnesota, they play exceptionally well under a dome. They'll try to turn the game into a track meet on the fast surface. Look for Brees to pick apart the Vikings' secondary, as he is first in the NFL with a 70.9 completion percentage and 336.0 passing yards per game. He has won his past two encounters with Minnesota as well.

Minnesota's X-factor could be wide receiver/return man Percy Harvin. The former first-round pick has recorded a touchdown in four straight games (5 total) and will give New Orleans some coverage problems. Harvin has caught a team-best 69 passes for 779 yards this season.

New Orleans has a perfect record (20-0) under Payton when it doesn't turn the ball over, but a formidable pass rush from the Vikes could change that this week. One or two turnovers will not keep the Saints from winning, but three or more gives the Vikings a real chance to pull off the upset.

Brees has thrown a touchdown pass in 40 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history (Johnny Unitas, 47). He also has at least 20 completions in an NFL-record 33 games in a row.

Two of the most versatile players in the league will square off. Saints RB/KR Darren Sproles is the only player in the NFL with two or more rushing touchdowns, two or more receiving touchdowns and a return touchdown, and Vikings WR/KR Percy Harvin is the only player in the NFL with a rush, receiving and return touchdown in each of the past two seasons.

Saints TE Jimmy Graham (probable, back) leads NFL tight ends in receptions (80) and yards (1,101) and is the first tight end in Saints history with a 1,000-yard season.

Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
New Orleans is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota

The Saints are on a mission for another NFC South title and will not let a lowly Vikings team get in the way of their plan. Though anything can happen in the NFL, having Brees turn in a clunker on Sunday is unthinkable. Minnesota has had trouble this season when it comes to dealing with elite quarterbacks, and it's almost certain Brees will dissect the secondary with another 300-yard, 20- completion performance. Minnesota rarely retreats within the friendly confines of the Metrodome, but a determined Saints squad has the firepower to change that.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Saints.

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aaron rodgers - adrian peterson - atlanta falcons - christian ponder - darren sproles - detroit lions - donovan mcnabb - drew brees - eli manning - jimmy graham

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