Nov 13 NFL Picks: Rested Detroit Lions Face Inspired Chicago Bears

Sunday, November 13, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Jay Cutler - Nov 13 NFL Picks: Rested Detroit Lions Face Inspired Chicago Bears

Analysis:
Though it's only been a month since the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears last faced one another, both of these NFC North inhabitants will have a somewhat different look when they square off Sunday at Soldier Field in a key divisional showdown that could have sizeable ramifications down the road.

Detroit's 24-13 victory over the Bears back on Oct. 10 capped off a sizzling 5-0 start for the up-and-coming Lions, though they've cooled off a bit in the weeks that followed that rousing performance. Chicago, on the other hand, has taken off since that bitter defeat, with the defending NFC North champions winning three straight times in the wake of that game to vault themselves squarely back in the mix of the conference playoff picture.

Vast improvement on defense has helped trigger Chicago's turnaround, with the veteran unit having yielded just 298.7 total yards and mere 67.3 rushing yards over the course of the win streak. In Monday's 30-24 triumph at Philadelphia, the Bears held an Eagles offense that came in No. 1 in the NFL in total yards to a season-low 330 on the night.

The Lions piled up 395 total yards and a whopping 181 yards on the ground in their 11-point verdict over the Bears back in Week 5, with speedy running back Jahvid Best amassing a career-best 163 rushing yards on only 12 carries and ripping off a back-breaking 88-yard touchdown run in the third quarter.

Best won't be available for the rematch, however, after still feeling the effects from a concussion the 2010 first-round pick sustained in a 25-19 loss to NFC West-leading San Francisco the week afterward. That result was the first of back-to-back defeats that threw a bit of cold water on Detroit's red-hot beginning to the season.

The Lions were able to bounce back in a big way, though, getting three touchdown passes from standout quarterback Matthew Stafford and a stifling defensive display in a 45-10 road rout of the Tim Tebow-led Denver Broncos prior to the team's Week 9 bye.

Detroit's formidable defense sacked Tebow seven times in that game and was a force as well in the earlier meeting between these teams, accumulating three takedowns of Jay Cutler and relentlessly harassing the Chicago signal-caller all throughout the contest.

Cutler's protection has been significantly better as of late, however. After surrendering a troubling 18 sacks over the season's first five weeks, the Bears' offensive line has allowed just three over the club's three-game surge. Cutler wasn't sacked at all by the Eagles on Monday.

The Lions have lost in each of their three visits to Soldier Field, but are 4-0 away from home thus far in 2011 and will be bringing a franchise-record run of six consecutive road wins into Sunday's tilt.

Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, November 13, 2011. Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

Last Week's results:
- Detroit Lions (-3) beats host Denver Broncos 45-10.
- Chicago Bears (+8) beats host Philadelphia Eagles 30-24.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Detroit Lions (6-2) wins and covers
- Underdog Chicago Bears (5-3) wins outright.

NFL Football Odds: Bears -3, O/U 43.5

Next up:
- Detroit home to Carolina, Sunday, November 20
- Chicago home to San Diego, Sunday, November 20

Detroit's heavy pass rush was a critical factor in its Week 5 victory, as well as a primary reason why its defense has been one of the league leaders in takeaways this season. Chicago's reworked offensive line has definitely held up better in the games that followed its last matchup with the Lions, and was able to successfully keep Philadelphia's talented linemen at bay on Monday. A repeat performance may be necessary, however, if the Bears are to earn a split of this series.

One way the Bears might be able to neutralize Detroit's formidable rush is to continue to feed RB Matt Forte the football. Chicago is 3-1 when its invaluable running back gains over 100 yards on the ground this season, and reaching that mark again is clearly within reach considering the Lions' problems against the run as of late. Though Detroit still defeated the Bears despite Forte's 116 yards last month, the task would be far easier if the defense can hold Chicago's clear-cut best weapon in check.

The Lions will need to find a way to replace Best's production that was essential to their earlier win over the Bears, though that will be tough when factoring in Chicago's improvements in run defense over the past few weeks and the drop-off in talent that substitutes such as Maurice Morris and a just-off-the- street Kevin Smith will bring. While Detroit does have a quarterback capable of beating teams on his own in Stafford, the conditions that will exist at Soldier Field in mid-November aren't quite as conducive to airing it out compared to the indoor environment of Ford Field.

With RB Jahvid Best (two concussions) out indefinitely, the Lions signed free agent RB Kevin Smith, their 2008 third-round pick.

Lions WR Calvin Johnson is the second player since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to have 11 touchdowns in the first eight games (Randy Moss, 2007).

Chicago's offensive line will get a chance to redeem itself after struggling in the first matchup (nine false starts, three sacks) against Detroit, which is fourth in the league with 24 sacks.

Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 games

It's unfair to say the Lions have regressed since their soaring start, as both of their losses have been to a pair of legitimate playoff contenders in San Francisco and Atlanta, but there's little question that the Bears are a better team now than the last time they faced Detroit. Chicago's defense has been performing at an extremely high level and won't have to deal with Best's speed and shiftiness out of the backfield, while Forte could be set up for another highly productive afternoon against the Lions' rather submissive run defense.

While Detroit has proven it can beat quality opponents on the road and possesses two definite x-factors in Johnson and its outstanding pass rush, the Bears' better balance on offense and sound defensive play could ultimately win out provided they're able to properly take care of the football.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Bears.

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calvin johnson - chicago bears - denver broncos - denver broncos - detroit lions - detroit lions - jahvid best - jay cutler - kevin smith - matt forte

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